Bad Jobs Data = Fed Unlikely to Hike?

GM and BRRR.

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Here’s what you need to know about the contest:

• Contest starts today, lasts for 10 emails

• $100 in BTC to whoever gets the most predictions right

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Here’s today’s question, good luck!

So we’re at an important juncture in global markets. With the US banking system teetering, countries around the world ditching the dollar, AI threatening millions of jobs and crypto surging in the face of aggressive regulatory opposition, we should expect volatility.

Today the Department of Labor reported weak job and employment data for February, with both job openings and hirings crashing to multiyear lows.

Typically, Bad economic data has caused stocks to go up, as speculators assume that bad data increases the likelihood of the Fed pausing interest rate hikes and/or pivoting to interest rate cuts. While the odds of a rate hike did fall with today’s data dump, stocks didn’t move in the expected direction. Instead, stocks went down, the dollar went down, while gold, crypto, and bonds all went up.

It’s worth watching to see if this was an anomaly or if the “bad data = good news for stocks” trade is coming to an end.

Here’s what we brrr’d today:

• Markets Recap

• Credit Suisse CEO apologizes under scrutiny

Mixed Tuesday w/ Stocks Down, Crypto & Gold Up

• Stocks ended down on Tuesday due to weak economic data, which exacerbated concerns about a possible recession.

• Factory orders fell for the second straight month and U.S. job openings dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years.

• Bank stocks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co, took a hit after the CEO warned U.S. banking crisis is ongoing and impact will be felt for years

• The S&P 500 lost 0.58% to end at 4,100.64 points, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.52% to 12,126.39, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.59% to 33,404.32.

• Caterpillar Inc, viewed as a bellwether for the industrial sector, fell sharply.

• Healthcare and utilities were among the few S&P 500 sector indexes gaining on Tuesday.

• Trading in interest rate futures shows bets are now tilted toward a pause by the Federal Reserve in May, with odds of a 25-basis point rate hike at 42%.

• So far in 2023, the S&P 500 has gained about 7% and remains down about 15% from its record high close in January 2022.

• Shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp fell after the SPAC linked to former U.S. President Donald Trump delayed the filing of its annual financial report.

   Reuters

Sketchy Takeover of UBS Under Spotlight

• Shareholders are demanding answers and accountability over Credit Suisse's controversial takeover by UBS.

• Credit Suisse Chairman and CEO apologized for the bank's collapse

• Both banks are facing legal and logistical challenges as they are investigating potential breaches of Swiss federal law by government officials, regulators, and top executives at Credit Suisse and UBS.

• Shareholders and bondholders also exploring legal action

• Norway's sovereign wealth fund will vote against the re-election of seven Credit Suisse board members.

• Sergio Ermotti will return as CEO of the new integrated bank.

• UBS will hold its own AGM, and Swiss regulator FINMA will hold a press conference.

  CNBC

AI ART OF THE DAY

Tried to generate a destitute job fair today, the AI didn’t quite get it.

What We Own

$BTC, $ETH, $NVDA, $AAPL, $COIN, $XOM, $TSLA, $MSFT, $AMZN

BTC, ETH and AMZN were all up strong - everything else was down. Finished the day green because of ETH’s 5.5% pump.

Here’s your link to qualify for the Prediction Contest $100 Prize 👇

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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.