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- Bitcoin Jumps as Trump Survives Assassination
Bitcoin Jumps as Trump Survives Assassination
PLUS: How Key Markets Are Moving So Far
Frank Locascio
July 15, 2024
TheBRRR’s Thoughts
GM.
Asset prices can correlate to real-world events in surprising ways.
As the world digested the horrifying footage of the shooting at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, money started to flow into bitcoin.
The largest crypto asset had been selling off for weeks but suddenly caught a bid from Saturday through today’s opening bell. It sits 10% higher than it did before the failed assassination attempt.
Is the surge a vote of no-confidence in the United States Dollar, the currency of the world superpower incapable of protecting its own leaders?
Is it a vote of confidence in a Trump victory, a politician driving his party to proactively support the crypto industry?
Either way, the momentum has shifted for the asset class, and Trump’s survival appears to be serving as a white swan catalyst.
The media is left with a lot of egg on its face as a result of its coverage of Trump and the event itself.
I’ve included a few screenshots I found particularly revealing throughout the newsletter today.
Bitcoin Rallies On Failed Trump Assassination
BTC Surges After Attack on Trump
Bitcoin skyrocketed to over $62,800 after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend, which also seemed to boost his chances of winning a second term.
Trump's pro-crypto stance has made his election prospects a significant metric for the cryptocurrency market.
Since the failed assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, BTC has rallied over 9%, currently priced at $62,876—an increase of 5.25% in the last 24 hours.
Trump's Re-election Odds Surge
Following the incident, Trump's chances of retaking the White House hit an all-time high according to Polymarket traders. "Yes" shares in Polymarket's contract on whether Trump will win the presidency climbed 10 cents, indicating a 70% chance of his victory in November.
Trump to Attend Nashville BTC Conference
Despite the attack, Trump remains "in good spirits" and plans to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, according to David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine.
The event runs from July 25 to July 27, with Trump slated to speak on the final day.
Larry Fink believes in #Bitcoin.
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor)
2:27 PM • Jul 15, 2024
More Market Movers On Trump’s Survival
Former President Trump’s odds of winning the US election have skyrocketed after surviving an assassination attempt. The miraculous survival, credited to a “bad wind estimate by an evil would-be assassin,” has united Trump’s campaign, as he shifts his focus to unity, even inviting former rival Nikki Haley to the Republican National Convention.
Trump’s odds of winning have soared from 63% to 70% since Saturday, according to betting markets.
Stocks on the Rise
Traders are betting on a red wave, pushing several sectors higher:
Private Prisons: GEO Group (+9.1%), CoreCivic (+6.7%)
Gun Stocks: Smith & Wesson (+4.6%), Sturm Ruger (+2.5%)
Healthcare: UnitedHealth (+2.1%), Humana (+3.1%), CVS Health (+2.1%)
Crypto: Coinbase (+5.8%), Marathon Digital (+5.2%), Riot Platforms (+5.9%)
Tech: Trump Media & Technology Group (+76%), Phunware (+41%), Rumble (+11%)
Conversely, renewable energy and green energy stocks are underperforming.
Financial analyst John Flood and Roundhill Financial’s CEO David Mazza highlight that Trump's potential presidency bodes well for US equities, especially domestic-facing stocks, financials, and defensives.
The market reflects optimism for deregulation, tax cuts, and a strong dollar, driving Treasury yields higher and impacting sectors across the board.
Unreal. It took less than 24 hours for ABC to start blaming Trump for last night.
“President Trump and his supporters have contributed to this violent rhetoric…”
“And let’s remember January 6th…”
— Cabot Phillips (@cabot_phillips)
1:28 PM • Jul 14, 2024
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Portfolio Notes
June 12: These assets all look great for continuation higher.
We are considering moving on from Tesla as it has lagged the rest of our portfolio badly and doesn’t have an obvious catalyst. We’ll monitor and let you know if we decide to move on.
Older Notes
Wednesday, April 3, 2024: We haven’t deployed the cash yet, but are eyeing exposure to a few assets including META and PLTR.
Monday, March 11, 2024: We sold Apple this morning. The newsletter held the stock from inception a year ago for a meager 12% gain.
The company has lost its magic evident by complacent iPhone releases, lack of a coherent vision for AI integration and punitive & anti-competitive App Store policies.
We believe the stock will move in-line with the broader Nasdaq going forward.
We’ll sit on the cash for now, but plan to redeploy it quickly.
Watchlist
$META: Sleeper in AI race and ad biz is proving resilient
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