TheBRRR’s Thoughts

GM.

Bitcoin is testing $60,000 and NVDA continues its correction down to prices not seen since reaching them for the first time 2 weeks ago - the horror.

Despite the downward pressure on two of the “main character” assets of this bull run, there is no change in our medium and long-term bullish view.

In the newsletter today, we’re covering Anthropic’s new splashy LLM Claude 3.5 as it is outscoring ChatGPT in several key performance benchmarks.

In today’s unintentionally regular column about government incompetence, we have a story about California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office sounding the alarm on the state’s grossly miscalculated employment data.

Given the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate to achieve both stable prices and maximum employment, grossly misreported employment data could lead to policy mistakes as the Fed is using bad data to make decisions on interest rates and in its open market operations (buying/selling bonds).

We’ve reported for months that the jobs data was misleading and providing the Fed cover to leave interest rates higher than it otherwise would to balance its mandate.

The evidence has become too substantial to ignore - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged as much during his last FOMC statement.

Markets are now only pricing 1 or 2 interest rate cuts this year - we think it could actually be as many as 4 but more likely 3.

Anthropic’s New LLM Claude 3.5 Outpaces OpenAI’s ChatGPT4o

WHAT HAPPENED

Anthropic launched Claude 3.5 Sonnet, claiming it surpasses OpenAI’s GPT-4o in performance on key benchmarks. The new model is faster, cheaper, and reportedly excels in practical applications. Influencers and developers praised its capabilities, showcasing its ability to create games and web forms from screenshots, and some hinted at early signs of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).

WHY IT MATTERS

• Superior Performance: Claude 3.5 Sonnet is touted as the most advanced LLM, pushing boundaries in speed and cost-efficiency.

• Real-World Utility: Early user feedback highlights its practical applications in coding and automation, indicating strong adoption potential.

• Competitive Pressure: With Claude 3.5 Sonnet outperforming GPT-4o, OpenAI faces renewed pressure to innovate and deliver on promised features.

• Market Dynamics: This leap could shift enterprise preferences, impacting the competitive landscape in AI development.

KEY POINTS

• Speed and Cost: Claude 3.5 Sonnet offers faster performance at a lower cost compared to previous models.

• User Adoption: Positive feedback from AI influencers and developers suggests high utility and adoption potential.

• OpenAI's Challenge: The success of Claude 3.5 Sonnet increases pressure on OpenAI to maintain its competitive edge and deliver promised updates.

• AGI Hints: Some experts speculate that this model shows early signs of approaching AGI, a significant milestone in AI development.

VentureBeat

California’s Is Terrible At Measuring Size of Its Workforce

WHAT HAPPENED

California's Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) revealed that reported job gains in 2023 were overstated. Early revisions indicate that instead of gaining jobs, California actually lost 32,000 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2023. This contradicts earlier reports that showed an increase of 117,000 jobs.

WHY IT MATTERS

• False Data: This revelation highlights significant discrepancies in job data reporting, raising concerns about the accuracy of economic indicators.

• Economic Impact: Misleading job reports could affect economic policy decisions, potentially leading to misguided strategies.

• Political Ramifications: The timing of the data revisions and their impact on public perception could influence political narratives, particularly concerning Biden's economic policies and the upcoming elections.

KEY POINTS

• Revised Numbers: Instead of the reported job gains, California saw no net job growth in 2023, with a minor increase of only 9,000 jobs overall.

• Reporting Discrepancies: The LAO report emphasizes the gap between preliminary monthly reports and more reliable administrative data.

• Federal Revisions: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's quarterly revisions provide a more accurate, albeit delayed, picture of the labor market.

• Future Outlook: Similar job growth overstatements are expected for the whole of the U.S., indicating broader issues in labor market data reporting.

Zerohedge

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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.ll