SPX: 6,585 (+1.19%) | DXY: 99.40 (-0.14%) | 10Y: 4.374% | Gold: $4,359 (-2.39%)

Oil War Rewrites Fed Playbook: Oil initially crashed to $89 on Trump’s strike postponement, then bounced back toward $92 after Iran denied any talks occurred. Markets gave back about half the morning rally as the “peace trade” evaporated. Meanwhile the Fed has raised its core PCE forecast to 2.7% with rate cuts slashed to one for 2026—down from three. The 2% target is fiction for now.

European Pause Cascade: The ECB held rates at 2.0% last week, postponing planned cuts as energy-intensive economies face recession risk from the maritime blockade. Europe is trapped—cut rates and fuel inflation, hold rates and watch manufacturing collapse. There’s no good option when your energy supply runs through a war zone.

Sanctions Pragmatism: Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea to cool crude prices—a tactical reversal of “maximum pressure” that tells you everything about where the real pain threshold is. Ideology bends when gas prices hit voters.

META: $603 (+1.52%) | NVDA: $176 (+1.49%) | TSLA: $379 (+2.91%) | NASDAQ: 21,937 (+1.33%)

META’s Layoff-for-AI Trade: Reuters reported Meta is planning to cut 20%+ of its workforce (~15,000 jobs) to offset $135 billion in AI capex this year—and the stock jumped 3% on the news. Wall Street loves the math: gut the humans, fund the GPUs. Meta called it “speculative,” but shares rallied before giving back gains later in the week as broader tech sold off on war fears. Google meanwhile closed its $32B Wiz acquisition, bolting cloud security onto its AI stack.

NVDA Reopens China at GTC: At GTC last week, Jensen Huang confirmed NVIDIA secured both US export licenses and Beijing approvals to restart H200 chip manufacturing for Chinese customers. The company’s also developing a China-specific Groq chip. Revenue beats geopolitics every time—though Congress is already considering a vote to limit the H200 flows, so this window may not stay open long.

TSLA’s Energy Pivot: Tesla signed a $4.3B deal with LG Energy Solution for battery cells dedicated to grid-scale storage—not vehicles—using a former GM joint-venture plant. Stock popped 3.6% on the news. Add in 91% YoY surge in China sales for February and driverless Robotaxis now operating in Austin with Cybercab production slated for April, and the narrative is shifting from “EV company” to “energy + autonomy platform.”

BTC: $70,416 (+3.79%) | ETH: $2,129 (+3.69%) | SOL: $89.63 (+4.06%) | F&G: 10

Commodity Classification Breakthrough: The SEC designated 18 crypto tokens as digital commodities—the biggest regulatory clarity event since the Bitcoin ETF approval. Projects finally have a framework instead of enforcement-by-litigation. This reshapes market structure overnight.

CLARITY Act Momentum: ETH, XRP, and SOL rallied as the CLARITY Act advanced through Senate-White House negotiations. The legislation would establish clear digital asset frameworks, ending the regulatory purgatory that’s haunted crypto since 2018. Washington is finally building on-ramps instead of roadblocks.

Fear = Opportunity: Crypto ripped 4%+ across the board with the Fear & Greed Index at 10 (Extreme Fear)—the lowest since the 2022 bear market bottom. Institutions are accumulating while retail panic-sells. When the crowd is maximally fearful and the regulatory backdrop is turning bullish, that divergence usually resolves one way.

Saturday Night Ultimatum: Trump posted on Truth Social that he’d “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants beginning with the largest if Tehran didn’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran’s military immediately countered: attack our grid and we target Israel’s power plants, Gulf desalination facilities, and infrastructure supplying US bases. Two nuclear-capable nations trading infrastructure threats over a weekend—the most dangerous escalation since the war began Feb 28.

Claim, Then Denial: Monday morning Trump ordered a five-day postponement of strikes, claiming “major points of agreement” from Sunday night talks involving envoys Kushner and Witkoff, facilitated by Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. Oil crashed to $89 and stocks surged. Then Iran flatly denied it—the IRGC-linked Fars agency said there are “neither direct nor indirect communications” with the US. Iran’s foreign ministry called Trump’s claims a ploy to soothe markets. Oil bounced to $92 and stocks gave back half the rally. Someone is lying—the market just doesn’t know who.

Damage Already Done: The Strait remains effectively closed. Qatar’s LNG facility needs five years and $20 billion to rebuild. Over 2,000 dead since the US-Israel operation launched Feb 28. Washington quietly eased sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea—a tacit admission that the pain threshold was reached. Whether talks exist or not, the war has already redrawn the global energy map. Gold sold off 2.4% as haven trades briefly unwound, only to find buyers again as the denial headlines hit.ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tue Mar 25 — Q4 Productivity Revision (8:30AM) | Flash PMIs (9:45AM) | Fed’s Barr (6:30PM)

Wed Mar 26 — Import Price Index (8:30AM) | Fed’s Miran (4:10PM)

Thu Mar 27 — Initial Jobless Claims (8:30AM) | Fed’s Cook, Jefferson, Barr, Miran

Fri Mar 28 — UMich Consumer Sentiment Final (10AM)