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THE BRRR’s BOTTOM LINE
Editor’s Note: We’ve been pumping out a lot of video content lately. Follow us on Instagram, YouTube and TikTok to get the latest. Here’s a preview we created for today’s FOMC Dot Plot Reveal.
This morning's Producer Price Inflation report damaged the dovish argument ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC interest rate decision and press conference. Here’s the data:
Headline PPI: +0.7% MoM (exp +0.3%) | Core PPI: +0.5% (exp +0.3%) | Annual: 3.4% (highest since Feb 2025)
Drilling in, both services and goods inflation were both problematic. Goods rose 1.1% with food up 2.4% and energy up 2.3%. Fresh vegetables soared 48.9%. None of this captures the Iran war's full impact on energy prices — that's still coming in future reports.
Inflation appears to be re-accelerating before the energy shock from the Iran War. Rate cuts in 2026 are functionally dead, unless the war ends quickly and data reverts.
Zooming out, tech's AI infrastructure arms race provides a genuine bright spot.
Meta's $135B commitment and NVIDIA's GTC kickoff signaling the deflationary revolution will eventually overwhelm inflationary supply shocks. The AI infrastructure buildout is the most deflationary force in history, and it's accelerating faster than inflation hawks can model.
Jensen Huang just projected $1 TRILLION in Blackwell + Vera Rubin orders through 2027.
Meta committed $135B.
And the market is signaling that the longtail of AI infrastructure is just getting started.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is sitting on a $66B backlog and just launched NVIDIA HGX B300 availability.
Bloom Energy (BE) — up 550% in 12 months — is solving the power bottleneck that threatens to cap the entire AI revolution.
Lumentum (LITE) joins the S&P 500 on March 23rd, a coronation for the optical networking backbone of AI data centers.
Solaris Energy (SEI) just hit all-time highs as energy infrastructure demand explodes.
The PPI print is scary if you think we're in the 1970s. We're not.
We're in the early innings of a productivity revolution that will compress costs across every sector — healthcare, logistics, legal, finance — faster than oil prices can inflate them.
Today's "sticky services inflation" in portfolio management fees and securities brokerage? That's exactly the kind of cost AI agents are about to obliterate.
Powell's 2 PM decision doesn't change the trajectory. Whether he cuts, holds, or talks tough, the $1T+ flowing into AI infrastructure is building the deflationary engine that makes today's inflation debate look quaint in 18 months.
The market knows it — that's why names like BE (+4.1% today), LITE (+4%), and SEI (all-time highs) are ripping while the macro bears argue about dot plots.
Even AAOI's -32% pullback this week is just profit-taking after a monster AI-optics run — the fiber infrastructure demand isn't going anywhere.
Buy the fear.
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MACRO
SPX: 6,770 (+0.04%) | DXY: 99.71 (+0.16%) | 10Y: 4.20% | Gold: $4,906 (-2.01%)
The Fed's 2 PM decision looms large as policymakers digest this morning's scorching PPI alongside energy-driven stagflationary pressures from the Iran conflict. With inflation running well above target on BOTH the supply and demand side, the consensus "hold" masks growing anxiety that policy is behind the curve.
Fed's Nightmare Scenario: Powell now faces dual inflation sources — services costs were already re-accelerating before the oil shock hit. The 1970s playbook comparison just got much more apt. Dot plot revisions will reveal whether the committee has abandoned rate cuts entirely or still clings to one symbolic cut later this year.
Oil War Escalation: For the first time, Iran successfully targeted actual production facilities in UAE (Shah field) and Iraq (Majnoon), escalating beyond refineries to upstream assets. This represents a "new phase" in the oil war that threatens global supply fundamentals, not just logistical bottlenecks.
Dollar Under Pressure: Despite DXY gains, structural weakening continues as energy shocks expose the $28T negative international investment position. The Iran war could trigger broader dollar crisis dynamics if allies continue shunning Trump's coalition and energy payments shift to alternative currencies.
TECH
META: $623 (-0.80%) | NVDA: $182 (-0.64%) | GOOGL: $311 (+1.73%) | NASDAQ: 25,009 (+0.02%)
Tech holds steady despite macro uncertainty as AI infrastructure spending accelerates across hyperscalers. The sector's resilience ahead of the Fed decision reflects confidence in secular AI demand overwhelming cyclical headwinds.
Meta's AI Blitz: META's announcement of $135B in AI-related spending for 2026 dwarfs previous capex cycles, signaling the hyperscale arms race is entering exponential territory. Zuckerberg's hiring of Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang for $14.3B underscores Meta's desperation to catch OpenAI/Anthropic in the foundation model race.
NVIDIA's GTC Kickoff: Jensen Huang's 3-hour keynote yesterday delivered: $1 trillion in expected Blackwell + Vera Rubin purchase orders through 2027 (up from $500B last year), Groq 3 LPU — Nvidia's first chip from its $20B Groq acquisition — shipping Q3, and the Kyber rack prototype integrating 144 GPUs vertically for next-gen density. Vera Rubin claims 10x performance per watt over Blackwell. The compute arms race just entered escape velocity.
Microsoft Shakeup: MSFT quietly reshuffles AI leadership amid competitive pressures from Claude and Gemini eating into Copilot market share. The moves suggest growing internal recognition that early AI advantages are proving more fragile than anticipated.
CRYPTO
BTC: $72,369 (-2.13%) | ETH: $2,243 (-3.22%) | SOL: $91.33 (-3.57%) | F&G: 28 (Fear)
Crypto trades defensively ahead of Powell's 2 PM decision as macro uncertainty overrides bullish fundamentals. The -3% selloff across majors reflects institutional de-risking rather than structural weakness, with Fear & Greed at 28 signaling capitulation territory.
Citi Downgrades Targets: Citigroup slashed 12-month Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets citing stalled U.S. crypto legislation that narrows the window for regulatory catalysts. The downgrades reflect growing Wall Street pessimism about political gridlock derailing institutional adoption momentum.
Solana Developer Surge: SOL ranked second only to Ethereum for new developer inflows in 2025, adding 11,500+ developers — the strongest sign yet that the "Ethereum killer" narrative is gaining substance beyond meme coin speculation. Growing developer ecosystems typically precede sustained price breakouts by 6-12 months.
Fed Dependency: Crypto's correlation with tech stocks intensifies as digital assets await Powell's inflation commentary. An unexpectedly hawkish tone could trigger further liquidations, while dovish signals on future cuts would likely spark immediate relief rallies across the entire risk asset complex.
GEOPOLITICS
Oil: $95.75 (+0.48%) | EUR/USD: 1.153 (-0.14%) | JPY: 159.26 (+0.23%)
The Iran conflict enters a more dangerous phase as diplomatic off-ramps disappear and allies distance themselves from Trump's coalition. Energy markets remain surprisingly calm despite production facility attacks, suggesting either complacency or effective strategic reserve management.
Trump Isolated: The President delayed his China summit and criticized allies for rejecting his request to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. European and Asian partners' reluctance to join the coalition reflects deeper concerns about U.S. strategic overextension and Trump's unpredictable escalation patterns.
Iran Hardens Position: New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei rejected all de-escalation proposals, demanding the U.S. and Israel be "brought to their knees" first. This generational leadership change toward more hardline positions eliminates near-term diplomatic solutions and raises the stakes for military outcomes.
Conflict Expansion Risk: Lebanon war escalating alongside Iran strikes signals the regional conflict could metastasize beyond energy markets into Mediterranean trade routes and European energy security. Italian intelligence warns the entire Eastern Mediterranean region faces growing instability that could disrupt the Indo-Mediterranean trade corridor.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Wed Mar 18 — PPI: +0.7% (2x expected) ✓ | Fed Policy Decision (2PM) | Powell Press Conference (2:30PM)
Thur Mar 19 — FedEx Q3 Earnings (AMC) | Darden Q3 Results | Initial Claims (8:30AM)
Fri Mar 20 — Existing Home Sales (10AM) | Philly Fed Index (8:30AM)
Fri Mar 20 — PMI Flash (9:45AM) | New Home Sales (10AM)
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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.
