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THE BRRR’s BOTTOM LINE
This morning, Trump claimed Iran has asked for a ceasefire and that he expects the war to end in “two or three weeks”. Markets heard “end” and stopped listening. The Dow ripped 1,100 points Tuesday, futures are green again this morning, and suddenly everyone wants to own tech stocks again.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the last significant impediments to peace: Iran says there are no direct negotiations and that they’re unwilling to re-open the Strait during a ceasefire, a non-starter to Trump. They also rejected a US-proposed 15-point peace plan, calling it unreasonable. But stocks are starting to look through the mess, and like what they see on the other side of the conflict.
Trump is set to give a “very important” update to the nation tonight at 9pm.
Meanwhile, NVDA dropped $2 billion into Marvell, ARM is up 10%, and OpenAI is printing $2 billion a month in revenue. The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t slowing down — it’s accelerating into the face of a war. Fear & Greed at 8. Growth stocks down 9% YTD. And the companies actually building the future are growing earnings 20%+. Something’s gotta give.
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MACRO
Q2 opens with a relief rally built on Trump’s promise that the Iran war wraps up in weeks — even as Iran insists there are no talks and oil supply remains disrupted.
S&P 500: 6,566 (+0.50%) | DXY: 99.40 (-0.44%) | 10Y: 4.31% | Gold: $4,750 (+1.37%) | Oil: $98.79 (-2.78%)
Peace Vibes, No Peace Deal: Trump told reporters the US could exit the Iran conflict in “two or three weeks.” Rubio backed it up. Markets launched — Dow +1,100 Monday, futures green today. But Iran rejected the US peace plan, demands Lebanon be included, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint. Oil dipped below $99 but analysts warn supply restoration takes months, not tweets.
Trump Floats NATO Exit: In the same breath as “war ending soon,” Trump said he’s considering leaving NATO over allies’ refusal to back the Iran offensive. The dollar slipped to 99.48, gold pushed to $4,760. The global monetary reordering thesis keeps getting free advertising from the White House.
Value > Growth (For Now): Energy is up 35% YTD, the best sector by miles. Russell 1000 Value +2%, Growth -9%. But growth earnings estimates call for 20%+ in 2026, led by tech. This divergence is a coiled spring — either the war premium stays or growth stocks are deeply mispriced.
TECH
META: $578 (+1.14%) | NVDA: $175.98 (+0.95%) | NASDAQ: 23,930 (+0.64%)
NVDA Buys the Supply Chain: Nvidia invested $2 billion in Marvell Technology, expanding their custom chip partnership. MRVL surged 12.8%, ARM ripped 10.5%. Jensen isn’t just selling GPUs anymore — he’s vertically integrating the entire AI hardware stack. AI-100 momentum scores: ARM 78, MRVL 75.
OpenAI’s $2B/Month Machine: OpenAI now generates $2 billion per month in revenue, up from $1 billion per quarter in 2024. That’s 8x growth in two years. For context, that growth rate is four times faster than Alphabet’s at the same stage. AI isn’t a cost center — it’s becoming the most scalable revenue engine in tech history.
CoreWeave’s War Chest: CoreWeave secured an $8.5 billion loan to expand AI infrastructure, rallying 12%. The GPU cloud company is betting that enterprise AI demand outstrips current data center capacity by orders of magnitude. When your lender gives you $8.5B for servers, the AI capex cycle isn’t slowing — it’s barely started.
CRYPTO
BTC clawing back above $68K on Iran peace hopes, but Fear & Greed at 8 tells you nobody trusts it yet. We’re 52% off the all-time high. This is either a generational bottom or a dead cat with good PR.
BTC: $68,475 (+0.39%) | ETH: $2,131 (+1.30%) | SOL: $83.42 (+0.39%) | F&G: 8
46 Days of Extreme Fear: The Fear & Greed Index has spent 46 consecutive days in extreme fear territory. BTC is down 52% from its $126K ATH, ETH lost nearly 60% peak-to-trough. Historical parallels: every prior streak above 30 days of extreme fear preceded a multi-month recovery. The market is maximally pessimistic while AI infrastructure companies are posting record growth. Disconnect.
Relief Rally or Trap? BTC touched $69,170 overnight before pulling back to $68,475. The late-March rally was driven entirely by Iran de-escalation hopes. Funding rates remain negative (-0.5% annualized on BTC), meaning shorts are paying longs. When funding is negative and price is rising, the squeeze potential is real.
BTC Dominance Holds 56%: Bitcoin’s market share remains elevated at 56.3%, signaling capital isn’t rotating into alts yet. Stablecoin inflows ticked up 0.16% on the week — modest but directionally positive. The put/call ratio at 0.69 suggests options traders are leaning cautiously bullish. Q2 setup: if Iran actually de-escalates, crypto catches a double bid from risk-on flows and dollar weakness.
GEOPOLITICS
Day 32 of the Iran conflict. Trump simultaneously promises peace and threatens to blow up NATO. Markets are choosing to hear the peace part.
Oil: $98.79 (-2.78%) | Gold: $4,760 (+0.77%) | DXY: 99.48 (-0.25%)
Iran Says No: Despite Trump and Rubio claiming the end is near, Iran rejected the 15-point US peace plan and insists it’s not negotiating. Tehran demands Lebanon’s inclusion in any deal, essentially linking the Iran conflict to the broader regional war. Meanwhile, Kuwaiti oil tankers are still getting hit. The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally disrupted. Oil dipped on vibes, not fundamentals.
NATO Ultimatum: Trump said he’s “considering leaving NATO” because European allies won’t back the Iran campaign. He added the Strait of Hormuz closure is “a problem for others to solve.” Translation: the US is signaling it may stop guaranteeing global energy security. Gold at $4,760 and the dollar below 99.50 are pricing this in quietly.
Iran Threatens US Tech: Iran warned it would target American technology companies — a new escalation vector that hasn’t been priced. Cyber warfare against cloud infrastructure or chip supply chains would be a very different kind of risk than oil disruption. Worth watching as peace talks remain fiction.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Wed Apr 01 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (10AM) | JOLTS Job Openings (10AM)
Thu Apr 02 — ADP Employment (8:15AM) | Initial Claims (8:30AM)
Fri Apr 3 — Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30AM) | Unemployment Rate (8:30AM) | ISM Services PMI (10AM)
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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.
