Fed minutes revealed cracks in the dovish consensus as markets confront "no landing" reality. Yesterday's FOMC release showed "almost all" participants backed the hold, but disagreement emerged on timing of future cuts.

Fed Divide: Minutes exposed hawkish shift with some members questioning need for ANY 2026 cuts given economic resilience. Market pricing evaporated three months of cuts since January.

Japan's Quiet Accounting Trick: Here's a story that didn't get nearly enough attention. When Japan raised interest rates, the value of government bonds issued during the zero-rate era collapsed—some fell to 38 cents on the yen. That left regional banks sitting on billions in unrealized losses, and Japan's Big 4 life insurers holding nearly ¥15 trillion (~$1 trillion) in paper losses. Japan's solution?

Change the accounting rules.

A Japanese accounting body proposed letting insurers reclassify bonds so they never have to report the losses, effectively killing mark-to-market for their biggest holders of government debt. Insurer stocks immediately rallied 3%.

The problem isn't solved—the losses are still there—they're just hiding them now. This is a $1 trillion game of pretend, and it only works if Japan can inflate the bonds back to par before anyone blinks.

Commodity Surge: Oil jumped 2% on Iran tensions while natural gas gained on Middle East supply fears. Energy complex decoupling from broader macro headwinds.

Meta's AI infrastructure blitzkrieg sent shockwaves through Silicon Valley as the social giant commits up to $135 billion on Nvidia hardware. The multi-year deal locks in "millions" of current and next-gen AI chips, extending NVDA's revenue visibility deep into 2027.

Meta's Moonshot: Zuckerberg's aggressive AI buildout dwarfs competitors, cementing Meta as the hyperscaler willing to spend whatever it takes. Nvidia shares jumped +1.6% on the news.

Vera Rubin Pipeline: NVDA's next-generation six-chip Vera Rubin system enters production H2 2026, promising another upgrade cycle for Meta and others.

Semiconductor Resilience: Despite rising yields pressuring growth names, AI infrastructure demand remains insatiable. Taiwan Semi's advanced chips (N7 and below) now 77% of wafer revenue.

Cloud Wars Intensify: Meta's massive commitment forces Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to match or risk falling behind in the AI arms race.

Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” just hit an all-time high—surpassing even the 2022 FTX collapse. BTC is down 47% from its $126K October peak, and retail has fully capitulated. But behind the panic, the regulatory picture is quietly transforming.

Peak Retail Panic: “Bitcoin going to zero” Google searches hit 100 on Feb 13—the highest reading ever recorded. BTC is down 47% from its $126,080 ATH in October. Historically, peak “going to zero” searches have coincided with major bottoms, not tops.

Base Ditches Optimism: Coinbase’s Base chain announced it’s abandoning Optimism’s OP Stack to build proprietary infrastructure. OP token cratered -14.7% in a day—the biggest L2 ecosystem fracture since Base launched. Coinbase wants full control of its chain, and Optimism just lost its most important partner.

CLARITY Act Momentum: The crypto market structure bill is gaining real traction—would formally split oversight between SEC (securities tokens) and CFTC (spot commodities like BTC). Coinbase CEO Armstrong called it a “win-win-win.” Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing hard. If it passes, it’s the regulatory clarity crypto has begged for since 2021.

Middle East tensions exploded higher as US-Iran nuclear talks collapsed and military intervention odds soared to 90%. Oil markets panicked on supply disruption fears despite massive floating storage glut.

Iran Crisis Escalating: US officials leak 90% probability of military action "within weeks" as protests rage in Tehran. Trump's repeated strike threats adding fuel to fire.

Oil's Geopolitical Premium: WTI crude spiked +2% despite three years of decline and record floating storage. Market pricing worst-case supply disruption scenarios.

Tariff Reversals: Trump withdrew 25% India tariffs after Modi agreed to stop Russian oil purchases, showing pragmatic deal-making over ideology.

Ukraine Talks Stall: Peace dividend evaporated as Russia-Ukraine negotiations broke down, removing hopes of Russian crude returning to markets.

Fri Feb 20 —Q4 GDP (8:30AM) |Core PCE Price Index (8:30AM) | Initial Claims (8:30AM) | Personal Income & Spending (8:30AM) | New Home Sales (10AM) | UMich Sentiment Final (10AM)

Mon Feb 24 — Flash PMI Manufacturing (9:45AM) | Flash PMI Services (9:45AM)

Tue Feb 25 — Consumer Confidence (10AM) | Richmond Fed Index (10AM)

Wed Feb 26 — Durable Goods Orders (8:30AM) | New Home Sales (10AM)

Thu Feb 27 — Initial Claims (8:30AM) | Q4 GDP Second Estimate (8:30AM) | Pending Home Sales (10AM)

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