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Markets nuked lower yesterday with Nvidia leading the fall on a barrage of bad news - most notable a DOJ subpoena probing Nvidia’s competitive practices.

The Nasdaq is down 3% this week (8% lower than its July ATH) with Nvidia down over 7% this week (25% lower than its June ATH).

Curiously, bitcoin has shown some relative strength this week after lagging tech throughout the summer.

This all looks like window dressing in the big scheme of things - as election odds and Federal Reserve-driven liquidity conditions will define markets over the last four months of the calendar year.

Economic data will play a role in both the election odds and Fed decisions, with this morning’s job openings report already making an impact.

This morning’s JOLTS report shows a sharp drop in job openings, hitting 7.673M in July—the lowest since January 2021—amid accusations of prior data manipulation by the Department of Labor.

Government job openings, previously inflated, were revised downward, while the private sector saw job listings fall to a 3.5-year low.

That was enough for markets to reprice the odds of a larger rate cut later this month, as the odds of a 50 bps cut climbed from 38% to 43%.

JOLTS Report Reveals Data Manipulation

WHAT HAPPENED:

• July JOLTS job openings fell to 7.673M, the lowest since January 2021.

  • Down from June’s revised number of 7.910M.

  • Huge miss against Wall Street's estimate of 8.100M—a 4-sigma miss.

• Government job openings were revised down, collapsing from 1.016M to 924K.

• Private sector job openings hit a new 3.5-year low.

• Construction job openings plunged, signaling trouble for that sector.

• Ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to 1.07—lowest since May 2021.

WHY IT MATTERS:

• Data manipulation: Critics argue the Department of Labor inflated prior reports, especially with government job openings. Revisions confirm the "beat" was fake.

• Cratering market: The steep drop in job openings signals economic slowdown—and might spook investors.

• Construction warning: Sharp fall in construction job openings points to a potential collapse in the sector soon.

• With the JOLTS response rate at a dismal 33%, the reliability of these reports is questionable—over 70% of the data is guesswork.

Bottom line: The jobs market is weakening fast, and manipulated data revisions are exposing that weakness. Expect major fallout in sectors like construction.

Zerohedge

NVDA Slammed Lower On DOJ Antitrust Probe

WHAT HAPPENED:

• The DOJ subpoenaed Nvidia in a deepening antitrust probe over its AI chip dominance, investigating claims that it unfairly restricts buyers from switching suppliers.

• Nvidia's stock took a historic hit, losing $280 billion in market value, the biggest one-day drop ever for the company, amid fears of economic slowdown and the DOJ inquiry.

• Regulators are also scrutinizing Nvidia's acquisition of RunAI, fearing it further entrenches its monopoly in AI computing.

WHY IT MATTERS:

• Nvidia’s chokehold on the AI chip market could face serious legal challenges, potentially disrupting the AI boom and making hardware more expensive for big players like Microsoft and Meta.

• The DOJ's aggressive stance under the Biden administration, combined with broad antitrust actions across industries, signals a war on monopolies—and Nvidia is the next big target.

• The potential for antitrust penalties or forced divestitures could heavily impact Nvidia's future sales growth and market dominance, reshaping the AI landscape.

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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.ll