TheBRRR’s Thoughts

GM.

The news cycle was so uninspiring yesterday that we couldn’t scrounge together a newsletter to send you.

It’s marginally better today as Trump and Harris face off in their first Presidential debate tonight and Apple announced the features and pricing of the iPhone 16 lineup at their annual iPhone event.

Bitcoin has loosely correlated with the odds of a Trump victory since he spoke at the annual bitcoin conference, so it’s reasonable to expect that trend to continue into the election, potentially serving as a form of real-time sentiment reaction to his debate performance tonight.

In overnight news, China is sending mixed signals, with exports surging (+8.7%) well above expectations, as companies scramble for international sales to offset weak local demand.

Meanwhile, imports flopped (+0.5%), undershooting forecasts by a wide margin—another warning sign for the world’s second-largest economy.

Chinese stocks keep bleeding, shaking investor confidence and piling pressure on Beijing to roll out a $1.4T stimulus plan to stabilize markets.

Elsewhere, Japan's BOJ officials remain dovish with “little need” for a rate hike next week, while the UK saw wage growth slow (+4%) in July—keeping the Bank of England on track to ease up on policy, though likely keeping rates unchanged for now.

Previewing Trump Vs Harris Debate & Market Impact

WHAT HAPPENED

The Trump-Harris debate tonight could inject a fresh wave of volatility into the markets, with key economic policies on taxes, trade, and tariffs likely to be major topics. With the election just two months away, this debate is critical as markets try to position themselves ahead of potentially significant shifts.

• S&P 500 saw its worst week since March 2023 due to poor U.S. jobs data, but rebounded slightly on Monday and Tuesday.

• Both candidates present starkly different economic visions that could reshape markets—especially in tech, energy, crypto, and defense sectors.

WHY IT MATTERS

• Taxes: Trump promises to slash corporate tax rates to 15%, while Harris aims to hike them to 28%. A Trump win could boost corporate earnings, fueling stock market growth, especially in sectors like tech and energy. Harris, on the other hand, could weigh down corporate profitability with higher taxes, especially for big companies.

• Trade and Tariffs: Trump plans to impose broad tariffs (up to 10%), particularly on Chinese imports. This could hurt chipmakers like Nvidia and Qualcomm, which rely on global supply chains. Harris, while maintaining a tough stance on China, may avoid the heavy-handed tariffs, potentially easing some of the tension in tech stocks.

• Immigration: A Trump win and his border enforcement could exacerbate low-skilled labor shortages, potentially driving up inflation, which would hit sectors that depend on cheap labor.

MARKET OUTLOOK

• Markets already jittery: The VIX (volatility index) is climbing, signaling heightened uncertainty. Stock futures are dipping ahead of the event, as investors brace for market-moving comments on taxes, regulation, and trade.

• Trump’s Tariff Warpath: Trump has previously targeted tech giants, especially Apple, Google, and Meta, pushing for higher tariffs on Chinese components that these companies rely on. If Trump pushes this narrative further, expect pressure on tech stocks, especially those with global supply chains.

• Harris and Big Tech: Harris has pushed for corporate tax increases, particularly on capital gains, which could weigh on the sector. Harris’ focus on green tech could also boost EV makers like Tesla and Rivian, as well as renewable energy stocks like First Solar and Enphase Energy.

Cryptocurrency:

• Trump’s Crypto Pivot: Trump pledges to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” Expect a potential surge in Bitcoin and related stocks like Coinbase and Marathon Digital if Trump wins favor. Pro-crypto policies could reignite “Web3”, which has struggled under regulatory uncertainty.

• Harris' Crypto Hostility: Harris hasn’t embraced crypto, and her mere continuation of the current admin’s posture will push for more regulation and put downward pressure on digital assets. A win for Harris would likely lead to more cautious crypto sentiment, with increased oversight over exchanges, crypto-friendly banks and digital asset startups.

Taxes

• Taxes & Corporate Earnings: Trump’s call for corporate tax cuts (down to 15%) could boost stock market optimism, particularly for energy companies and traditional industries. Harris, by contrast, advocates raising corporate taxes to 28%, which could dampen enthusiasm in sectors like tech, financials, and pharmaceuticals.

• Harris has called for a new tax on unrealized gains on individuals with over $100m in net worth. Perceived to be a devastating policy for equities and asset prices, it will be interesting to see if she doubles down when asked about the controversial proposal.

Bloomberg

Apple Disappoints At iPhone 16 Event

WHAT HAPPENED:

• Apple launched its iPhone 16 at the "Glowtime" event, with a big push on AI integration.

• Stock dropped 1% during the event, underperforming the Nasdaq, which gained over 1%.

• New features:

  • iPhone 16: Generative AI integration, customizable camera, emphasis on privacy.

  • Apple Watch Series 10: $399, sleep apnea detection, thinner design.

  • New AirPods: USB-C charging, AI-enhanced gestures like nodding to answer calls.

• AI features won’t hit globally until 2024, with language support lagging behind in China and Spain.

WHY IT MATTERS:

• Apple underperformed, continuing its historical trend of stock drops during iPhone launches.

• Investors aren’t sold on the AI hype yet—no pricing or battery life upgrades to create real excitement.

• Big market expectations riding on AI integration to reignite iPhone sales after weak revenue.

• Despite the current dip, Apple stock is still up 14% since June, driven by anticipation for AI-related upgrades.

• iPhone dominance is key—over half of Apple’s revenue comes from iPhones, so any perceived flop impacts heavily.

TAKEAWAY: Investors weren’t impressed with the iPhone 16 AI reveal. The stock drop continues Apple’s launch day blues, but long-term AI bets could still pay off if they can deliver globally.

Forbes

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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.ll