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TheBRRR’s Thoughts 

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Markets are bracing for impact as Trump’s return to the spotlight sends shockwaves through global trade. New tariffs are set to go live on Wednesday, dubbed “Liberation Day” by US leadership.

We’re more optimistic than most, and we think most of the downside is behind us. We’re going to explain why we’re bullish here in the intro and present a counterpoint in today’s featured article below.

We believe the weight of the data now supports a bullish stance across risk assets. 

Despite pervasive negativity from strategists and retail, we’re seeing a clear turn in the business cycle and liquidity conditions that investors shouldn’t ignore.

Separately, consumer sentiment is rarely this negative, and it typically signals that we’re bottoming.

NASDAQ 100’s RSI recently dipped below 30, and AAII sentiment surveys show retail is excessively bearish. Historically, these setups have preceded sharp upside reversals:

Liquidity — the mother of all bull markets — is returning in force. Global M2 is back on an upswing, tracking almost identically to the 2016–2017 Trump reflation playbook.

Bitcoin has already priced in weak ISM data (down to 48.4) and is bouncing off oversold RSI levels.

Here’s how bitcoin has historically tracked against global money supply with a 10 week lead:

One of the most reliable forward indicators — financial conditions — has eased substantially since the Q4 tightening, which was triggered by a spike in bond yields and the dollar post-election.

That tightening has now fully reversed.

At the same time, the inflation scare is rapidly fading. US CPI decelerated to 2.8% in February, while Truflation has already dropped below 2%, pointing to further soft prints ahead.

Inflation is falling globally — from France and Germany to South Korea and even China, which is back in outright deflation at -0.7% YoY. This disinflation opens the door for easier policy and reduces the need for hedges, unleashing capital toward risk-on assets.

The idea of a modern-day “Shanghai Accord 2.0” is in play, as the US, China, and Europe quietly align around dollar weakening and global reflation (money printer go brrr)

Portfolio remains long Nasdaq/big tech and a bitcoin-heavy crypto allocation.

We might go lower first, but we don’t believe this year’s steep selloff is the beginning of a new regime - rather a short-term disruption to a multi-decade trend of currency devaluation in favor of assets.

The Bearish Take

Tactical Tariffs: Markets Prep for Trump’s Trade Blitz

Synopsis: With Trump's self-declared "Tariff Liberation Day" set for April 2, JPMorgan’s trading desk is flashing warnings across asset classes. Their latest primer shreds investor complacency around the so-called “Trump Put” and “Fed Put,” suggesting both are far lower or later than markets assume. Policy uncertainty is king, and markets may not be prepared for the inflationary and recessionary storm that Trump’s tariffs could unleash—especially if a trade war with China or the EU escalates.

The Details:

• JPM flips tactically bearish ahead of April 2. Their call: “policy uncertainty is the dominant factor,” and any bounce would likely require a surprise trade deal with a G7 ally.

• Consensus misconceptions: Many think Trump will backstop the S&P at 5,000–5,300, and that the Fed will cut by June. JPM disagrees—Trump may tolerate a deeper pullback, and the Fed won’t step in unless unemployment hits ~5% (now at 4.2%) even if inflation spikes.

• Tariff Scenarios:

  • 10% blanket tariff: SPX +2–2.5%, 10Y yields up 10bps.

  • 25% tariff: SPX -1.25% to -1.75%, 10Y yields -14bps.

  • 35% tariff: SPX -2% to -3%, 10Y yields -20bps.

• Sector impact: Energy and Utilities seen as relative longs; lower-income discretionary and beta tech as short targets. Precious metals, crude, and natgas are preferred trades in FICC.

• China and shipping risks: Tariffs or bans on Chinese containerships could spike global freight rates—echoes of 2020s supply chain chaos.

• Europe may get a pass: Bloomberg hints at EU concessions. Japan may see <10% tariffs due to ongoing negotiations.

WHY IT MATTERS: Markets have been pricing in "just another Trump tweetstorm." But if real tariffs hit and stick—with inflationary fallout and global retaliation—the soft landing narrative cracks. Don’t bank on the Fed or Trump riding to the rescue. Traders need to reprice risk fast.

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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.