Synopsis: Trump's record 108-minute State of the Union doubled down on tariffs and affordability while ignoring crypto.

SOTU: Longest Ever, Zero Crypto: Trump delivered a record 108-minute State of the Union focused on affordability, border security, and military honors. He called the Supreme Court's tariff ruling "very unfortunate" and vowed to maintain tariffs under alternative legal authority without Congressional action. Iran got a clear red line — "we will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon."

Tariff Chaos Deepens: The Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling puts $175B+ in revenue at risk for refunds. Trump's scrambling with fallback 15% global tariffs, but trade partners are balking on existing deals. Markets initially sold off on the uncertainty, but the SOTU's focus on affordability and avoiding new escalation provided a mild relief bid.

Synopsis: NVIDIA beat big but the market's selling the news — shares down 4.4% despite 75% data center growth. Classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" as NASDAQ drops 1.4%.

NVIDIA: Beat Big, Sold Anyway: Data center revenue surged 75% to $68.1B (vs $66.2B est), guidance beat expectations by $5B for next quarter, Asian tech rallied overnight — and then the US open happened. Shares down 4.4% in a textbook "sell the news" move. After rallying into earnings, traders are taking profits despite fundamentals that validate the entire AI capex thesis.

AI Capex Validated, But Priced In: The earnings beat proves hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spending isn't speculative froth. But with NVDA already pricing in perfection, the market needs a new catalyst beyond "beat and raise." The question isn't whether AI is real — it's whether these stocks can keep compounding from current valuations.

Synopsis: Yesterday's short squeeze is already fading. BTC rallied 10%+ from Tuesday's lows but couldn't crack $70K — now giving back some of the gains as the "sell the news" mood infects crypto too.

Squeeze Fades at $70K: BTC snapped back near $69K yesterday after rallying 10%+ from Tuesday's lows — a textbook squeeze on overcrowded shorts and thin liquidity. But the rally stalled exactly where every February bounce has died: $70K. Now sliding back to $67.4K this morning as traders take profits.

Crypto Stocks Tell the Story: Yesterday's euphoria (Circle +34%, Coinbase +14%, MSTR +9%) will face reality today as risk-off returns. FalconX reports funds chased the rally via ETH call options in the $2,000-$2,200 range — classic late-to-the-party behavior. DOT ripped 21% ahead of March's 50% reward cut, but the SOTU's zero crypto mention was a cold shower for "crypto president" hopefuls.

Synopsis: US-Iran talks underway in Geneva today as oil retreats from 4-month highs, while Russia-Iran compete with discounted crude to maintain China market share.

Iran Diplomacy Window: Third round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations happening today in Geneva with potential interim deal discussion. Oil pulled back from $67.28 peak as strike risk diminishes, with Polymarket showing 90.5% odds against US strikes by Feb 28.

Energy Realignment: Russia and Iran slashing oil prices to compete for Chinese buyers after India retreated from purchases due to sanctions pressure. Two carrier strike groups in Arabian Sea maintain pressure while leaving diplomatic door open.

Ukraine Anniversary: Four years since Russia's invasion, conflict has become global geopolitical turning point with Iranian weapons and North Korean soldiers now active in European battlespace. Trump administration balancing military buildup with renewed negotiation efforts.

Thu Feb 26 — US-Iran Geneva Talks | Fed's Barkin & Schmid Speak

Fri Feb 27 — Core PCE (8:30AM) | Consumer Sentiment Final (10AM)

Mon Mar 3 — Manufacturing PMI (9:45AM) | Construction Spending (10AM)

Tue Mar 4 — Job Openings (10AM) | Fed's Williams Speaks

Wed Mar 5 — ADP Employment (8:15AM) | Services PMI (9:45AM)