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The Supreme Court handed markets a nice surprise on Friday — striking down Trump's tariffs.
Stocks rallied on the news, but gave back much of the gains during the Monday session.
With the overhang of tariff uncertainty cleared, markets are left with overhang of pending military action in Iran. Escalating rhetoric between the two countries contributed to jittery markets today, as the VIX (expected volatility index) spiked by 10%.
Until there’s a resolution with Iran, risk assets will struggle to perform - even Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday night - should they crush expectations - might still struggle to catalyze a broad rally until the Middle East starts to deescalate.
The only other major catalyst this week appears to be Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday night.
I expect the President to brag about the economy and potentially promise vague stimulus, but he likely won’t break significant news with his speech.
Polymarket predicts he’ll say the word “Jobs” at least 20 times, but more interestingly - that there’s a 70% chance he mentions “Aliens”.
MACRO
SPX: 6,854 (-0.81%) | DXY: 97.58 (+0.20%) | 10Y: 4.056% | Gold: $5,218 (+0.60%)
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariff regime, so naturally Trump responded by raising global tariffs to 15%. Constitutional law meets trade policy chaos.
Constitutional Crisis: Supreme Court ruled Trump lacked authority under IEEPA to impose blanket tariffs. His response? Circumvent with 15% global rate using different authority, triggering "sell America" trade in Asian markets.
GDP Catastrophe Ignored: Q4 growth collapsed to 1.4% annualized from 4.4% previous quarter, missing consensus of 3% by massive margin. Federal shutdown and consumer spending decline drove the miss, but markets shrugged off 68% growth deceleration.
Fed Unfazed: Waller said tariff uncertainty has "little effect" on rate outlook, suggesting monetary policy won't rescue trade chaos. Bonds barely moved despite constitutional showdown — traders betting on policy gridlock, not economic strength.
TECH
GOOGL: $314 (-0.31%) | META: $647 (-1.35%) | NVDA: $191 (+0.68%) | NASDAQ: 22,693 (-0.85%)
Friday's tariff relief rally is unwinding fast. NVDA holding green ahead of Wednesday earnings while everything else bleeds — the AI trade is the last bull standing.
Alphabet Breakout: GOOGL led the charge with +4% surge on "tariff clarity" on Friday — apparently constitutional chaos counts as clarity when it momentarily removes uncertainty. Stock rebounding after rocky 2026 start that saw megacaps underperform.
Nvidia Earnings Anxiety: Wednesday's NVDA report becomes the ultimate AI sector litmus test. Meta's announced capex increase signals continued infrastructure spending, but investors need proof the AI buildout generates returns.
Sector Rotation Signal: Tech outperforming despite rising uncertainty suggests defensive positioning into earnings. If NVDA misses, this relief rally becomes a bull trap. If it beats, tariff chaos becomes background noise.
CRYPTO
BTC: $64,572 (-4.68%) | ETH: $1,851 (-4.66%) | SOL: $77.80 (-4.60%) | F&G: 5
Miners Ditching BTC for AI: Bitdeer — the world's largest publicly traded self-miner at 63.2 EH/s — just liquidated 100% of its Bitcoin treasury. Zero BTC on the balance sheet. The company raised $325M in convertible notes to fund an AI data center pivot instead. When the people who literally produce Bitcoin would rather hold cash and build GPU farms, that tells you everything about where the smart money sees returns right now.
USDT's FTX-Era Warning: Tether's USDT supply has contracted $1.5 billion in February — the sharpest monthly decline since December 2022. Three consecutive days of $1B+ outflows. Bloomberg flagged it as matching the exact liquidity pattern that preceded the FTX bottom. Stablecoin supply is the crypto market's fuel gauge, and it's draining fast.
CLARITY Act May Die: The crypto market structure bill that was supposed to deliver regulatory clarity has stalled in the Senate — again. No markup date, no vote scheduled, and with 2026 midterms approaching, Democrats have zero incentive to help pass it. If it doesn't happen before election season, the regulatory framework crypto has begged for since 2021 could be dead for years.
GEOPOLITICS
Oil: $67.18 (+1.80%) | Iran tensions escalating
Europe slammed Trump's "pure tariff chaos" while Iran tensions simmer. Trade deals hanging by a thread as allies lose patience with policy whiplash.
European Pushback: EU officials called Trump's tariff flip-flopping "pure chaos," warning trade deals are at risk. UK and European markets rallied initially on Supreme Court ruling, then sold off as Trump doubled down with higher rates.
China India Winners: Supreme Court ruling benefits countries that escaped Trump's initial tariff wave. China stands to gain meaningfully from IEEPA tariff removal, while India's negotiating position improves for interim trade deal discussions.
Iran Strike Risk: Trump reportedly considering limited military strike to pressure Tehran into nuclear negotiations. Oil markets surprisingly muted on escalation risk, suggesting either dismissal of threats or hedging already in place.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Mon Feb 24 — Flash PMI Manufacturing (9:45AM) | Flash PMI Services (9:45AM)
Tue Feb 25 — Consumer Confidence (10AM) | Richmond Fed Index (10AM)
Wed Feb 26 — NVDA Earnings (4PM) | Durable Goods Orders (8:30AM) | New Home Sales (10AM)
Thu Feb 27 — Initial Claims (8:30AM) | Q4 GDP Second Estimate (8:30AM) | Pending Home Sales (10AM)
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