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TheBRRR’s Thoughts 

GM.

I’m writing this update on the heels of the most significant macroeconomic week of the year.

There were signs something was brewing - Trump visited Powell at the construction site of the new Federal Reserve building last week.

On the surface, Trump was there to break Powell’s chops over ballooning costs of the project.

Underneath, Trump was there to strong-arm the Fed chair into interest rate cuts.

He failed.

On Wednesday, Jerome Powell took the stage for a press conference after announcing the Fed voted 9-2 to leave interest rates unchanged. The 2 dissenters voted to cut rates by a quarter point.

This was the first time since 1993 that 2 or more voting members disagreed with the consensus - a testament to the embarrassing groupthink of the institution.

During the presser, Powell expressed that the risks to the labor market and inflation were balanced: labor market strong, inflation mildly higher than target.

Turns out he was gaslighting us on the strength of labor market.

The non-farms payroll data rolled out on Friday morning and shocked everyone. Revisions to May and June were horrible, as was July.

The sheer size of the revision to both May and June’s numbers calls into question the reliability of anything coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, period.

Take a look:

May (Revised):
Reported: 144K ; Revised: 19K
Net: -125K

June (Revised)
Reported: 147K ; Revised: 14K
Net: -133K

July:
Expected: 110K ; Reported: 73K
Net: -37K

This report sent markets haywire.

The odds of an interest rate cut at the next meeting instantly doubled from 38% to 79%.

The S&P and Nasdaq gapped down 2% lower.

Why did Powell assure the world that the labor market was so robust on Wednesday?

The Wall Street Journal already came out to run cover for Powell this morning, as if the Fed relies on this janky report to form its opinion on the job market.

Big picture - none of this matters.

Rate cuts are likely beginning in September, Powell’s term ends early next year, and risk assets are still outperforming the rest of the market on every imaginable timeframe.

Crypto Update

Major Crypto Sector Highlights – July 2025

U.S. Passes Historic Stablecoin Law (GENIUS Act) President Trump signed the groundbreaking GENIUS Act into law on July 18, creating a federally mandated, ultra-transparent framework for stablecoins. Issuers must maintain 100% liquid asset reserves (USD or Treasuries) with monthly disclosures—raising the stakes for compliance and trustworthiness in the $250 billion market.

Bitcoin Rockets Past $123K Amid Regulatory Breakthrough Bitcoin surged to new all-time highs above $123,000, riding the wave of regulatory clarity and massive institutional inflows. Crypto's total market cap soared above $4 trillion, highlighting a tectonic shift from retail speculation to deep-pocketed institutional confidence.

CLARITY Act Shakes Up Crypto Oversight In another landmark decision, the U.S. House passed the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, defining clear roles for the CFTC and SEC. Notably, tokens can now legally transition from securities to commodities as decentralization grows—a game changer that reduces regulatory friction.

Ethereum Surges Amid Massive ETF Inflows Ether posted remarkable gains, outpacing Bitcoin with a 50% surge since April. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust alone attracted roughly $4 billion in July, underscoring big money's growing conviction in ETH. Ethereum’s growing dominance as the backbone for stablecoins and DeFi continues to attract institutional money.

XRP Breaks Out After Major SEC Victory Ripple's XRP exploded to multi-year highs above $3.60 following the SEC dropping its appeal, confirming XRP trades largely outside securities regulations.

“DeFi Summer 2025” Heats Up DeFi experienced explosive growth, with TVL (total value locked on chain) surging 57% to ~$138 billion. Ethereum-based protocols (led by Aave with ~$51B TVL) dominated, boosted by new U.S. regulatory clarity and massive ETF-driven liquidity.

PayPal Powers Crypto Mainstream Adoption PayPal launched its game-changing “Pay with Crypto” feature, enabling merchants to accept 100+ cryptos instantly converted to stablecoins or USD. Connecting over 650 million crypto users globally, PayPal dramatically cuts cross-border fees (to just 0.99%).

Traditional Finance Doubles Down on Stablecoins Visa and Mastercard aggressively expanded stablecoin settlements, integrating tokens like USDG and PayPal USD, and networks like Stellar and Avalanche. Retail giants Amazon and Walmart hinted at launching their own stablecoins, and major banks including JPMorgan signaled readiness to join.

AI Update

Big Tech: Earnings & AI Momentum

• Microsoft enters $4 trillion club
  Q2 earnings surged on AI-driven Azure and Copilot momentum. Shares jumped ~4 – 8% post‑report, pushing Microsoft past a $4 trillion valuation—second only to Nvidia . Investor confidence centers on OpenAI partnerships and enterprise demand for AI tools.

• Meta Platforms soars ~10% after earnings beat
  Q2 EPS of $7.14 far exceeded expectations (~$5.88), with projected Q3 revenue of $47.5–50.5 billion. CEO Zuckerberg highlighted the company’s progress toward “superintelligence” and expansion of AI infrastructure and talent acquisition .

• Amazon reports strong AWS growth, stock dips on cautious guidance
  Q2 net sales rose 13% year-over-year ($167.7B), driven by AWS (17–17.5% growth) and AI investments—including Anthropic partnership & AgentCore tools. But weak Q3 operating income guidance and vague AI strategy commentary led shares to fall ~7% after-hours .

• ServiceNow credits AI internal usage for $100M headcount savings
  Strong Q2 results exceeded expectations. The company attributed reduced hiring needs to increased use of AI for automation, highlighting operational leverage from AI integration .

🚀 U.S. AI Startup & VC Landscape

• Thinking Machines Lab (TM Lab)
  Launched by ex‑OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, the startup closed a $2B seed round in July led by Andreessen Horowitz and investors like Nvidia, AMD, Cisco, and Jane Street. Valued at ~$12 billion, TM Lab is rapidly building an elite team of ex-OpenAI engineers and researchers .

• Venture capital continues to favor AI startups
  PitchBook data: In H1 2025, AI startups captured 64% of U.S. VC funding, part of a record $205 B raised globally (up 32% YoY), with more than $70 B allocated to unicorn rounds ($1 B+) .

🧭 U.S. AI Policy & Strategic Planning

• “Winning the Race: America’s AI Action Plan” unveiled
  The White House rolled out a new strategy in July, shifting from cautious regulation to aggressive private-sector–led innovation. Three executive orders aim to reduce bureaucratic barriers and accelerate commercialization .

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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.