THE BRRR’s BOTTOM LINE
The hottest trades of the past year have gotten turbulent. Gold hit a record $5,550 last week before crashing 11% on Friday. Silver dropped 31% in a single session. Bitcoin slumped to $74,500 over the weekend — its lowest since April.
What's happening? Well, Trump kicked off the party nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman on Friday, and the market interpreted Warsh and his track record (as a former Fed governor) as a hawkish surprise for interest rates.
Not everyone’s convinced - Warsh’s former boss Druckenmiller already refuted the narrative.
However, that momentum has contributed to the ongoing unwind of speculative bets.
We find it hard to believe Trump’s Fed chairman interviewed well with a hawkish bias. Given the country’s need to refinance debt this year and Trump’s desire to pump the economy, we expect Warsh to play ball.
MACRO
S&P 500: 6,938 (-0.5%) | Dow: 49,455 (+0.1%) | 10Y: 4.28% | Gold: $4,950 (+6%) | Silver: $87.75 (+13%)
Precious Metals Whipsaw: Gold futures up 6% this morning after Friday's brutal selloff. The metal hit $5,550 last Wednesday before plunging to $4,400 yesterday — an 11% drop. Silver crashed 31% Friday in its worst session since 1980. Analysts say fundamentals haven't changed, but "serious froth and leverage" had entered the trade (Miller Tabak). Chinese investor FOMO drove much of the recent surge.
Warsh Fed Chair Impact: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair (announced Thursday) contributed to Friday's market shift. Warsh is viewed as more hawkish than Powell. Markets are still digesting what this means for rate policy.
Oil Dips on Iran Talk: Crude oil fell Monday after Trump mentioned negotiations with Iran. WTI trading around $62.80.
TECH
PLTR: $156+ (+6%) | NVDA: $180 (-2.9%) | META: $698 (-1.2%) | TSLA: $424 (+0.5%)
Palantir Crushes Earnings: Stock soaring 11% premarket after Q4 beat. CEO Karp called it a "remarkable achievement" driven by AI demand. Revenue guidance strong. The AI software maker had pulled back 30% from November highs on valuation concerns — this report may reignite the bull case.
SpaceX + xAI Merge: Elon Musk combined two of his companies yesterday at a reported $1.25 trillion combined valuation ($1T SpaceX, $250B xAI). Major consolidation in the Musk empire.
AMD Reports Tonight: Chip giant releases Q4 after the bell. Key test for AI infrastructure spending thesis. Guidance will be closely watched.
CRYPTO
BTC: $78,000 (-1.3%) | ETH: $2,290 (-2.3%) | SOL: $102 (-2.3%) | F&G: 17 (Extreme Fear)
Weekend Dump: Bitcoin crashed below $75,000 Saturday — lowest since April — before recovering to ~$78K. Down sharply from October's $126K record. The "digital gold" thesis is being tested as actual gold outperforms despite its own volatility.
Extreme Fear Persists: Fear & Greed index at 17 marks extended pessimism. Historically these levels precede bounces, but sentiment remains fragile. No clear catalyst for the weekend selloff beyond broader risk-off in speculative assets.
MicroStrategy Under Pressure: MSTR getting scrutiny as BTC weakness puts their leveraged Bitcoin strategy in focus. Stock down significantly from highs.
GEOPOLITICS
Warsh 98% for Fed Chair: Polymarket has Kevin Warsh locked in for Fed Chair confirmation. Senate hearings expected soon. His hawkish reputation could keep rate cut expectations muted.
Trump-Iran Talks: President mentioned ongoing negotiations with Iran, which pressured oil prices Monday. Details sparse but markets taking it as potentially reducing supply risk.
India Trade Deal: Trump announced tariff reduction to 18% on Indian goods (down from 25%) after Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil. A rare de-escalation in trade tensions.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Mon 2/3: Factory Orders
Tue 2/4: JOLTS Job Openings (10AM) | GOOG, AMD earnings (AMC)
Wed 2/5: ADP Employment (8:15AM) | ISM Services (10AM) | DIS, QCOM, ARM earnings
Thu 2/6: Jobless Claims (8:30AM) | AMZN, LRCX earnings (AMC)
Fri 2/7: NFP Jobs Report (8:30AM)
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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.
