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There was a bloodbath across equities today with AI darlings NVDA and Taiwan Semiconductor leading the rapid descent.

Trump revealed components of his economic plan in a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg recorded in June and released today. Comments he made about high tariffs on China appear to have spooked the markets.

We’re covering the Bloomberg article in-full in our 2nd story today.

The Nasdaq had its worst day of the year, falling by nearly 3% from the open bell.

Crypto held up reasonably well, with bitcoin down by 1.4% over the last 24 hours and altcoins more divergent and mixed.

The dollar index continued moving lower against other currencies and is now firmly down 3% since late June.

The dollar weakness combined with surging Trump victory odds and imminent liquidity injections from the Treasury and Fed make for one strong cocktail to carry risk asset bulls through the end of the year.

No change in our core views.

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Jamie Dimon Changing His Mind On BTC, Per Trump

WHAT HAPPENED

• Trump's Crypto Advocacy: Donald Trump revealed that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, once a staunch bitcoin and crypto critic, has changed his stance on the matter.

• Dimon's Criticism: Dimon had previously labeled bitcoin a "fraud" and a "Ponzi scheme" but has led JPMorgan in developing its own blockchain and cryptocurrency, JPM coin.

• Trump’s Crypto Moves: Trump, now pro-bitcoin and crypto, has named J.D. Vance as his running mate for 2024, accepted campaign donations in cryptocurrencies, and aligned himself with major crypto industry players.

• Political Implications: Trump’s support for bitcoin puts him in stark contrast with the Biden administration’s anti-crypto stance. He’s also open to considering Dimon for U.S. Treasury Secretary if elected.

WHY IT MATTERS

• Wall Street and Crypto: The shift in Dimon’s stance reflects a broader acceptance of crypto within traditional finance, potentially signaling increased mainstream adoption and investment.

• Regulatory Landscape: Trump's crypto-friendly position could lead to significant regulatory changes favoring the industry, encouraging innovation and investment in the U.S.

• Political Leverage: Aligning with crypto could bolster Trump’s appeal among tech-savvy voters and investors, positioning him as a forward-thinking candidate in the 2024 race.

• Economic Strategy: Trump’s push for the U.S. to lead in bitcoin mining and crypto adoption could impact energy policy and national economic strategy, emphasizing energy dominance and technological leadership.

Forbes

Trump on Taxes, Tariffs, Powell In Bloomberg Sitdown

Bloomberg Businessweek Interview with Donald Trump

• Former President Donald Trump gave an exclusive, wide-ranging interview at his Mar-a-Lago estate, discussing his potential next presidency. Despite a tight race with President Joe Biden and the looming shadow of 34 felony convictions, Trump remains optimistic and confident, buoyed by robust fundraising and unwavering support from his base.

Economic Plans

• "Trumponomics" Overview:

  • Trump’s economic strategy includes maintaining low interest rates and taxes to drive economic growth and attract businesses back to the U.S.

  • He plans to increase domestic oil drilling and implement fewer regulations, aiming to boost energy independence and lower energy costs.

  • Stricter immigration policies are central to his plan, intended to boost domestic wages and reduce competition for jobs among American workers.

• Corporate Tax Rate:

  • Trump proposes reducing the corporate tax rate to as low as 15%, arguing that it will make the U.S. more competitive on the global stage and encourage businesses to invest domestically.

• Cryptocurrency:

  • He plans to unleash the crypto industry, advocating for innovation while simultaneously aiming to rein in what he sees as the excesses of Big Tech companies.

Federal Reserve

• Jerome Powell:

  • Despite previous criticisms, Trump committed to allowing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to serve out his term until 2026, signaling a potential shift towards stability in monetary policy during his potential second term.

Trade and Tariffs

• Protectionist Trade Policies:

  • Trump’s protectionist stance could have significant implications for major American companies like Apple and Nvidia, which rely on international supply chains and markets.

  • He intends to impose higher tariffs on China and the European Union, aiming to protect American industries and reduce trade deficits, despite concerns about potential inflationary impacts.

Foreign Policy Stance

• Taiwan:

  • Trump expressed a lukewarm commitment to defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression, suggesting a more transactional approach to U.S. foreign policy that prioritizes direct benefits to America.

• Saudi Arabia:

  • Reflecting his transactional approach to international relations, Trump maintains a favorable view of Saudi Arabia. He believes in leveraging personal relationships with leaders like Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to secure favorable terms for the U.S.

Wall Street and Inflation

• Higher Inflation Expectations:

  • Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays are preparing for the potential impact of Trump’s protectionist trade policies, which could lead to higher inflation and increased costs for businesses and consumers.

Polls and Public Opinion

• Polling Trends:

  • Trump’s economic stewardship is increasingly favored over Biden’s, with many voters believing that Trump’s policies would better manage the economy.

  • There are notable shifts in support among Black and Hispanic men, who are turning towards Trump, partly due to dissatisfaction with rising prices for essentials like food, housing, and gas.

Overall Strategy

• Key Themes:

  • Trump views his economic message as the most effective route to securing victory in November. His strategy includes a combination of tax cuts, more oil drilling, less regulation, and higher tariffs, with fewer commitments to foreign financial aid and a focus on direct benefits to American workers and businesses.

  • He believes that his unorthodox agenda will resonate with enough swing state voters to hand him the election, despite his controversial first term and ongoing legal challenges.

Bloomberg

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The BRRR is meant for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions.ll